We are at the beginning of a recovery, but it will be a long, gradual rebound. That’s the opinion Alan Beaulieu, a noted economist from the Institute for Trend Research, gave at the Woodworking Industry Conference April 24.
“We’ll see growth the rest of 2010 and through 2011 and 2012,” said Beaulieu. “There will be a slowdown in 2013, but it will be mild, and not a full-blown recession. We won’t get back to 2007 levels until 2017. This will not be a robust recovery, you have to create your own opportunities.” Beaulieu says there are still some major problems, but nothing that will send the economy back into a tailspin.
The biggest problem he sees in commercial real estate, but “the banks know the problem is coming and they have been hoarding capital to cover their losses. They are ready for this, they weren’t ready in 2008.” Beaulieu also sees inflation as a threat, but one that will be managed. He cautioned the audience to be ready for it. “You are going to have to start giving raises to your employees again, if you want to keep them,” he said.
As for housing, he doesn’t see homebuilding rise rapidly, but he does see it going up. He predicts 590,000 units in 2010, 650,000 units in 2011 and the industry not reaching the 1.1 million unit mark until 2017.
You can view a clip of his presentation.